What the failed QH traces can explain

The traces localize increasing fitted residuals, but do not identify a causal failure mechanism. This support report concerns one incomplete seed and three retained validations; it is not a completed QH policy study.

Supported residuals by horizon

Open full-size figure; zoom to inspect labels

H12–H16 contribute about 64% of the increase in mixed fitted residual, under different state-query phases. Longer-horizon targets move during fitting. The heatmap therefore cannot distinguish target drift from prediction failure by itself.

Weighted operational-feasibility BCE contributes a median 56.6% of logged combined batch loss. This is a scalar weighted loss share, not a shared-gradient share. Sampled gradients remain below clipping norm one, but sparse observations do not reconstruct the failure-time batch or rule out unobserved instabilities.

The cloud capture contains 4,938 complete rows, including 2,300 carried diagnostic rows representing 123 distinct run/update coordinates. Repeated transport rows are not independent optimization measurements. Native source ordinals and multiplicities remain in the complete diagnostic view.

Next: inspect complete finite precision transactions and shared-gradient support under a prospective protocol. A cosine or scalar share alone cannot show long-term interference. The main Q1/QH synthesis keeps this failed attempt distinct from subsequent engineering completions and the zero-auxiliary Mac Q1 fits.

Reuse

The history/cloud bundles beside the original report preserve admitted observations, namespace and terminal bounds. Use the existing scorer diagnostic builders and read_report_bundle; the historical public QH mission is unavailable. No new fit, retrospective selector or loss-weight change is made here.

Finding → research question → thesis

Finding / evidence RQ Thesis section Coverage / gap
Scalar loss share and moving-target residual RQ3 sec:thesis-discussion Partial: failure interpretation; causal interference remains untested
Methods, complete tables, original figures and version history

Previous primary report retains its complete narrative, exact tables and original figures. This 15 October revision is an authored synthesis, not a new experiment or a change to the numerical snapshot.

Experiment index and evidence routes. Missing/private parents remain explicit in the native campaign owner; historical versions retain their original dates and scientific identities.

Scientific snapshot and attempt identities remain those of the cited experiment. Report synthesis: 15 October 2026; restored to the domain/date owner: 16 October 2026.